Rest of Season Projection
CalCategoryJuan
32K →46
3.71ERA3.72
1.24WHIP ←1.26
2–7W ←1–2
0SV →3–6
Current Season
CalCategoryJuan
14K →30
2.53ERA ←6.00
1.22WHIP ←1.70
2W ←1
0SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cal Quantrill
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.59 is 2.40 above the ERA — regression coming
Juan Mejia
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 sits 0.10 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.393 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Cal Quantrill: 32 K / 3.71 ERA. Juan Mejia: 46 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).