MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Juan Mejia
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Juan Mejia

COL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.88 is +0.78 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable, the 5.58 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 6ERA 4.47WHIP 1.53W 0–0SV 0–1

Mejia is a hold — the ERA is noise but the skill is below league.

His BABIP-against is .345 against a league average of .295, and that gap is why his ERA reads worse than his pitching. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 182, so the 5.58 on the scoreboard overstates the damage. The problem is what sits underneath: his expected ERA is 4.88, .78 above the league average of 4.1, and it has been stepping up across the season, not settling down. He walks 13.4% of batters, well above league, and strikes out only 19.9%, below it. The strikeout and walk rates are past the point of reliability. The luck will give some of the ERA back, but the pitcher it gives it back to is below average. Hold. 6 K and 4.47 ERA ROS: a drop-tier arm, deep-league streaming-only, so hold the status quo without hesitation.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.9%—−5.4% ▼vs his ~25.3% career norm
  • Walk %13.4%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~10.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable — the 5.58 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.88 is +0.78 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.9%
37.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.3%
3.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
believable since Jul 22.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
277 / 200 TBF
xERA4.88
4.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.78vs his norm —
277 / 200 TBF
ERA5.58
5.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
59.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.9%
norm19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −5.4% ▼
277 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
277 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.345
.345*
lg avg .295 ▲+.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
277 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
277 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
97.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
1132 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.9%→22.2%signal6 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.3% → projected 22.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.88signal4.47 ERA — xERA 4.88 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactsignal1.53 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop4 SV, 4.47 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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