week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Juan Mejia
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Mejia is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise.
His ERA sits at 6.00, but that number is a product of bad luck, not bad pitching. His BABIP-against is .373, 78 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 78. That gap is pure noise. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 3.92, below league average. The underlying skill metrics are solid: a barrel rate allowed of 3.8% is half the league average, his hard-hit rate allowed is right at league average, and his strikeout rate is above league average at 23.8%. Limited data — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season — but the mechanics are there. The ERA will come down when the BABIP normalizes. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.373 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL78 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL78 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
lg avg .315 ▼−.002too early to trust
NOISE126 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18too early to trust
NOISE126 / 200 TBF
ERA6.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.90too early to trust
NOISE27 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%too early to trust
NOISE126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.373
lg avg .295 ▲+.078too early to trust
NOISE78 / 800 BIP