Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryJuan
37K →49
3.69ERA ←3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.26
3–9W ←1–2
0SV →3–6
Current Season
ColinCategoryJuan
23K →30
2.14ERA ←6.00
0.81WHIP ←1.70
3W ←1
0SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Holderman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.212 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.76 is 0.72 above the ERA — regression coming
Juan Mejia
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.372 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Colin Holderman: 37 K / 3.69 ERA. Juan Mejia: 49 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).