Rest of Season Projection
JasonCategoryJuan
37K →49
3.70ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.26
2–6W ←1–2
1–3SV →3–6
Current Season
JasonCategoryJuan
11K →30
0.90ERA ←6.00
1.00WHIP ←1.70
2W ←1
1SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jason Adam
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.234 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.62 is 1.73 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Juan Mejia
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.372 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Jason Adam: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Juan Mejia: 49 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).