week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jason Adam
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.44 is 0.94 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.93 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0–0
Adam is a sell-high — his 2.50 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.4%—−11.6% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.44 is 0.94 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 TBF
xERA3.44
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 TBF
ERA2.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm −11.6% ▼
134 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −3.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
134 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.4%→23.3%signal4 K — K% 16.4% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 23.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.44noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.44 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 6.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.