MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jason Adam
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jason Adam

SD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.41 is 0.91 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.91
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0–2

Adam is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA sits at 2.50, but the number driving it is not reliable. His BABIP-against is .258 — 37 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 102. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.41, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. His strikeout rate (16.4%) is below league average, and while his swinging-strike rate (15.3%) is above league average, the strikeouts aren't converting. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, and the surface-versus-skill gap is clear. Regression is coming. Sell high. 16 K with 1-3 W and 0-2 SV is a deep-league sell window — cash in before the 3.70 ERA lands.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.4%—−11.6% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.41 is 0.91 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 TBF
xERA3.41
3.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 TBF
ERA2.50
2.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.4%
norm16.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm −11.6% ▼
134 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −3.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
134 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
.258*
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
93.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.4%→23.3%signal16 K — K% 16.4% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 23.3% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.41noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.41 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 6.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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