MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jason Adam
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jason Adam

SD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Adam is a sell-high — the ERA is running on luck, not stuff.

The 2.62 ERA is the number the market sees, and his BABIP-against is why it looks that good: .245 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 107, so that gap is luck, not a skill he owns. His expected ERA is 3.78 — more than a run above the ERA — and the strikeouts point the same way. He is punching out 15.5% of batters, well below league, and well below his own 28.0% career baseline, with the rate stepping down across the sample. The whiffs are there (14.9% swinging-strike), but they are not turning into outs at the plate. Suppressed contact allowed reads fine, yet the run prevention is propped up by bounces. Sell high. The market pays for 2.62; ROS says 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP — a deep-league trade window, sell before regression.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.5%—−12.5% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.245 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
107 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
believable since May 297.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
107 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA2.62
2.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −12.5% ▼
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −2.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.245
.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
583 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.78 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups