week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Jason Adam
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Jason Adam is a sell-high — BABIP luck inflates his ERA.
His ERA is 0.90, but the foundation is built on luck. His BABIP-against sits at .226 — 69 points below league average of .295 — and BABIP-against needs roughly 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 63. That gap is unsustainable. His expected ERA is 2.67, which is still good, but nearly two runs above the surface number. His strikeout rate is 13.8%, well below the league average of 22%, and it has been stepping down across the sample, so there is no elite-stuff cushion when the BABIP normalizes. The batted-ball data is solid — barrel rate allowed is 4.8%, about half the league mark — but the ERA is being flattered by fortune. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.67 is 1.77 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.261
lg avg .315 ▼−.054too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
xERA2.67
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.43too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
ERA0.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.20too early to trust
NOISE20 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL80 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%too early to trust
NOISE80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.226
lg avg .295 ▼−.069too early to trust
NOISE63 / 800 BIP