Rest of Season Projection
JasonCategoryJustin
32K →40
3.70ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP1.24
2–5W2–4
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
JasonCategoryJustin
11K →26
0.90ERA ←3.54
1.00WHIP ←1.11
2W2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jason Adam
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.45 is 1.81 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Justin Sterner
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.41)
Jason Adam: 32 K / 3.70 ERA. Justin Sterner: 40 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).