Rest of Season Projection
BradCategoryJason
46K ←37
3.68ERA ←3.70
1.23WHIP ←1.24
2–7W2–6
0SV →1–3
Current Season
BradCategoryJason
31K ←11
2.68ERA →0.90
1.00WHIP1.00
3W ←2
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brad Lord
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.248 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.55 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
Jason Adam
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.234 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.62 is 1.73 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Lord's 46 K edge Adam's 37 K; ERA and WHIP are nearly identical. The 9-strikeout gap is the separator. Both are sell-high calls.