week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Brad Lord
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.00 is 0.38 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.90WHIP 1.32W 0–1SV 0
Lord is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.3%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
- Strikeout %21.8%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~19.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.00 is 0.38 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
213 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
213 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
xERA4.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.10vs his norm —
321 / 200 TBF
ERA3.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
74.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
321 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
321 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
213 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
321 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
1331 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.8%→21.1%signal6 K — K% 21.8% (signal) tempered to career ~19.9% → projected 21.1% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 4.00signal3.90 ERA — xERA 4.00 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.