week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Brad Lord
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0
Lord is a hold — league average, nothing unstable pulling either way.
ROS projects K 31 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 2.68 YTD → 3.84 ROS, WHIP 1.00 YTD → 1.31 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.2%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
- Strikeout %21.6%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~19.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
238 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
357 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
357 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
83.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
357 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
357 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
238 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
357 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
357 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
1467 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.6%→21.0%signal0 K — K% 21.6% (signal) tempered to career ~19.9% → projected 21.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.84 ERA — xERA 3.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.