week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Brad Lord
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Lord is a sell-high — BABIP luck is propping up his ERA.
His ERA of 2.68 looks sharp, but the number that is holding it down is his BABIP-against of .248, well below the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 109 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the sequencing and his expected ERA is 3.55, nearly a full run higher than what the box score shows. Limited data: the xERA is still short of its stabilization point at 152 batters faced, so while the direction is clear, the magnitude could refine. He is not a dominant strikeout pitcher at 20.4%, and he allows hard contact at a 43.1% rate, above league average. The surface is a mirage. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.248 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.55 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016too early to trust
NOISE152 / 200 TBF
xERA3.55
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.55too early to trust
NOISE152 / 200 TBF
ERA2.68
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42too early to trust
NOISE37 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL152 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%too early to trust
NOISE152 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.248
lg avg .295 ▼−.047too early to trust
NOISE109 / 800 BIP