MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brad Lord
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brad Lord

WSH·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.16); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 25ERA 4.00WHIP 1.31W 1–4SV 0

Lord is a hold — no edge in either direction.

His xERA is 4.16, essentially league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual strikeout rate, walk rate, and whiff rate all sit within a point or two of the league mean. The only area where he shows any distinction is his barrel rate allowed (5.9%, well below the 8.0% league average), but that is offset by a hard-hit rate that is right at league average and a chase rate that is slightly above it. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample — more of a trend toward mediocrity than a breakout. There is nothing unstable pushing the line up or down: neither a lucky BABIP boost nor an inflated ERA hiding above-average skill. He is what the numbers say: a league-average arm. Hold. 25 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 28 innings — a league-average arm worth a drop-tier streaming-only hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.5%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %21.0%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~19.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.8%
40.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
248 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
4.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —
248 / 200 TBF
ERA3.88
3.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.0%
norm21.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
248 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
248 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
248 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
248 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
1030 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.0%→20.5%signal25 K — K% 21.0% (signal) tempered to career ~19.9% → projected 20.5% over ~30 remaining…
xERA 4.16signal4.00 ERA — xERA 4.16 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 37 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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