week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Colin Holderman
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.07 is 1.29 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Holderman is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.3%—+5.5% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.07 is 1.29 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed49.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.4%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
138 / 200 TBF
xERA3.07
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
138 / 200 TBF
ERA1.78
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +5.5% ▲
138 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −2.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.3% norm — expect it to rise.
138 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.214
lg avg .295 ▼−.081vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
540 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→25.0%signal21 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 25.0% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.07noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.07 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.