week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Colin Holderman
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.87 is 1.14 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.81WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Holderman is a sell-high — the ERA is riding on BABIP-against luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %9.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.87 is 1.14 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
222 / 200 TBF
xERA3.87
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.23vs his norm —
222 / 200 TBF
ERA2.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
52.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
222 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
222 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
222 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
222 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
860 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.6%signal0 K — K% 22.5% (signal) held to career ~22.8% → projected 22.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.87signal3.81 ERA — xERA 3.87 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.