MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Colin Holderman
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Colin Holderman

CLE·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Holderman is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.83

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.70 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.1%
45.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL51 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.8%
11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%too early to trust
NOISE51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
.269
lg avg .315 ▼−.046too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
xERA2.84
2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
ERA2.14
2.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.96too early to trust
NOISE21 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
28.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL80 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%too early to trust
NOISE80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.200
.200
lg avg .295 ▼−.095too early to trust
NOISE51 / 800 BIP