week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jacob Latz
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.66 is 0.53 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.184 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.86 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.66WHIP 1.13W 0–0SV 0–0
Latz is a sell-high — a .184 BABIP-against is doing the flattering.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.6%—+8.4% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
- Walk %8.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~10.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.184 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.66 is 0.53 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
165 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
165 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.253
lg avg .315 ▼−.062vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
xERA2.66
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.44vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
ERA2.13
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm +8.4% ▲
271 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.184
lg avg .295 ▼−.111vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1128 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.6%→27.1%signal0 K — K% 30.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 27.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.66signal2.66 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.66 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.272 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard8 SV, 2.66 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.