week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jacob Latz
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.51 is 0.66 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.177 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.91 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 2.51WHIP 1.15W 0–0SV 1–2
Latz is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding behind a lucky BABIP.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.7%—+7.5% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
- Walk %8.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~10.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.177 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.51 is 0.66 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
146 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
146 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.247
lg avg .315 ▼−.068vs his norm —
236 / 200 TBF
xERA2.51
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.59vs his norm —
236 / 200 TBF
ERA1.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
63.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +7.5% ▲
236 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
236 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.177
lg avg .295 ▼−.118vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
146 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
236 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
236 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1001 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.7%→26.3%signal4 K — K% 29.7% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 26.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.51signal2.51 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.51 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.274 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard10 SV, 2.51 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.