week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jacob Latz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.155 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.53 is 0.92 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.63WHIP 1.23W 1–1SV 5–9
Latz is a sell-high — BABIP luck is propping up his ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.2%—+6.0% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.155 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.53 is 0.92 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.249
lg avg .315 ▼−.066vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
xERA2.53
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.57vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
ERA1.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.49vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +6.0% ▲
163 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −3.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.6% norm — expect it to rise.
163 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.155
lg avg .295 ▼−.140vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
683 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.2%→24.9%signal20 K — K% 28.2% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 24.9% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 2.53noise3.63 ERA — xERA 2.53 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactnoise1.23 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.11 skill WHIP, blended 6%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)5-9 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep15 SV, 3.63 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.