Is Peyton Gray a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Peyton Gray's rest-of-season outlook?

3.57 xERA with sub-7% walks beats the 4.10 league mark

week 31

this weekBUY

last weekNO CALL

Peyton Gray

TEX·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

new call as of October 26, 2026

Buy stable xERA 3.57, 0.53 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.76

ROSK 0ERA 3.57WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Gray is a buy — his expected ERA is earned, and it keeps dropping.

His expected ERA is 3.57, more than half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample — the direction is the point, not just the level. Nothing in his profile is doing the work for him: he strikes out 24.1% of batters and walks 6.8%, and his swinging-strike rate of 12.7% and chase rate of 33.0% both sit above league average. Batted balls against him are not sneaking through, either, with hard-hit contact allowed at 34.5% versus a league mark of 40.0%. There is no fluke holding this up. The command is real, the contact suppression is real, and the expected numbers are getting better, not worse. Buy. The 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP hold as a deep-league asset you build around — acquire before the surface stats catch up.

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.57, 0.53 below league — production is earned

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —

168 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —

168 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.292

lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —

249 / 200 TBF

xERA3.57

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —

249 / 200 TBF

ERA3.86

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

56 / 200 IP

Strikeout %24.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —

249 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

249 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.299

lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

168 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

249 / 60 TBF

Chase %33.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —

249 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

944 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 24.1%→24.1%signal0 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.1% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 3.57signal3.57 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.57 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…

BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.

rosterdeep3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons