week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Peyton Gray
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Gray is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His ERA is 3.57, but the number keeping it low is his BABIP-against: .275, 20 points below league average, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 54. Strip out that luck and his expected ERA is 3.92 — well above the surface. His strikeout rate and hard-hit rate allowed are both near league average, so there is no elite skill story to soften the regression when the BABIP normalizes. The ERA will rise. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.69
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.92 is 0.35 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%too early to trust
NOISE54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
lg avg .315 ▼−.002too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18too early to trust
NOISE80 / 200 TBF
ERA3.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53too early to trust
NOISE17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL80 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%too early to trust
NOISE80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
lg avg .295 ▼−.020too early to trust
NOISE54 / 800 BIP