Is Peyton Gray a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Peyton Gray's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 3.49 says better than the 3.93 ERA shows.

week 25

this weekBUY

last weekNO CALL

Peyton Gray

TEX·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

ON THE 15-DAY IL

new call

Buy stable xERA 3.49, 0.61 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.78

ROSK 5ERA 3.49WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Gray is a buy — his run prevention is earned, not lucky

His expected ERA is 3.49, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The skill metrics back it up: his expected wOBA allowed is .290, .025 better than league, and his strikeout rate of 23.8% and walk rate of 6.6% are both on the right side of average. He is missing bats at a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and keeping hard contact down, with a 33.7% hard-hit rate allowed that is well below the league's 40%. His xERA has stepped down across the sample, which says the run prevention is getting sharper, not softer. Nothing here is propped up by luck. Buy. 5 K and a 3.49 ERA over the ROS make him a deep-league asset — add now before the window closes.

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.49, 0.61 below league — production is earned

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —

166 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed7.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —

166 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.290

lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —

244 / 200 TBF

xERA3.49

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —

244 / 200 TBF

ERA3.93

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.17vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

55 / 200 IP

Strikeout %23.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —

244 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —

244 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.297

lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

166 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.5%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

244 / 60 TBF

Chase %32.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —

244 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

929 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 23.8%→23.8%signal5 K — K% 23.8% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 23.8% over ~5 remaining IP.

xERA 3.49signal3.49 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.49 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…

BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.

rosterdeep3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons