week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Peyton Gray
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.21); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Gray is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.21)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA3.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.89vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
570 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.2%→25.0%signal23 K — K% 25.2% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.0% over ~23 remainin…
xERA 3.21noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.21 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 8.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.