week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Gavin Collyer
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.60); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Collyer is a hold — league average, nothing unstable pulling either way.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.60)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 200 TBF
xERA4.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
25 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
113 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.238
lg avg .295 ▼−.057vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
65 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
113 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
480 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.4%→21.1%signal0 K — K% 20.4% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.60noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.60 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 17 IP.
BB% 16.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 17% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.77 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.