MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · July 1, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Collyer
week 14
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Gavin Collyer

TEX·P
data as of July 1, 2026·week 14
new call as of July 1, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.45 is 0.74 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0

Collyer is a sell-high — ERA flattered by suppressed BABIP.

His ERA is 3.71, but the number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .220, 75 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 42 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.45, 0.74 runs higher than his actual ERA, and that gap points directly at regression. He strikes out 19.7% of batters, below the league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate is 8.9%, well below the league average of 11.0%. There is no elite-stuff story to lean on when the luck normalizes. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the mechanism is clear. Sell high. 23 K with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league sell window — cash out before the BABIP luck fades.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 0.74 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed26.2%
26.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.4%
2.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
.327*
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
76 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
76 / 200 TBF
ERA3.71
3.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
believable since May 2919.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
76 / 70 TBF
Walk %18.4%
18.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
76 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.220
.220*
lg avg .295 ▼−.075vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Chase %21.4%
21.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
97.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→20.6%signal23 K — K% 19.7% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 20.6% over ~25 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.45 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 17 IP.
BB% 18.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.87 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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