week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Kumar Rocker
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Rocker is a sell-high — ERA inflated by BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 3.54, but his BABIP-against is .268 — almost 30 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 169, so that gap is luck. Strip it out: his expected ERA is 4.62, more than a run higher than the surface. His expected wOBA allowed is .337, above league average, and his strikeout rate is below league at 18.3%. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the underlying skill is deteriorating, not improving. The market is pricing the ERA. The data says regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.08 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL240 / 200 TBF
xERA4.62
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL240 / 200 TBF
ERA3.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56too early to trust
NOISE56 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL240 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL240 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027too early to trust
NOISE169 / 800 BIP