MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jack Leiter
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jack Leiter

TEX·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78
ROSK 14ERA 4.59WHIP 1.37W 0–1SV 0

Leiter is a sell — the expected numbers say the stuff isn't working.

His expected ERA is 4.85, three-quarters of a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .337 against a league average of .315, so the contact he is giving up is worse than average. His barrel rate allowed is 10.3% against a league average of 8.0%, and his walk rate is 9.9% against 8.0% — the control is below league. There is no luck story to fall back on: the surface is not suppressing anything, and the expected line is stepping up across the sample. He strikes out 23.4% of batters, barely above league, so there is no swing-and-miss floor to lean on. This is the level. Sell. 14 K and a 4.59 ERA rest of season make him a drop — fringe streaming-only arm, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.85 +0.75 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
233 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
233 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
xERA4.85
4.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.75vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
ERA5.29
5.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.4%
norm23.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
355 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
355 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
.301*
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
233 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
96.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1397 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.4%→23.2%signal14 K — K% 23.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.9% → projected 23.2% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 4.85signal4.59 ERA — xERA 4.85 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop14 K ROS, 4.59 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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