week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Jack Leiter
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.86 +0.76 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.78 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.59WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0
Leiter is a sell — plenty of velocity, not enough results.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
- Walk %9.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.86 +0.76 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
233 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
233 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
xERA4.86
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.76vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
ERA5.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
355 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
355 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
233 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1397 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.4%→23.2%signal0 K — K% 23.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.9% → projected 23.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.86signal4.59 ERA — xERA 4.86 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.59 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.