week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Jack Leiter
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Leiter is a sell — the skill is below league with no luck cover.
His expected ERA is 4.46, 0.36 runs above league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable — 287 TBF against a stabilization threshold of 200. His xERA has actually been stepping up across the sample, not down, so there is no hidden improvement trend. He allows hard contact at 42.0% (league 40.0%) and barrels at 11.0% (league 8.0%), both above league and stable. His strikeout rate is above average at 25.8%, but his 9.8% walk rate is elevated, undermining the benefit. This is not a pitcher being sabotaged by bad luck — his actual ERA likely tracks near the xERA. The stuff is not elite enough to overcome the contact quality he gives up. Sell.
Sell
med0.66
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.46 +0.36 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL287 / 200 TBF
xERA4.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.36trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL287 / 200 TBF
ERA4.34
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.24too early to trust
NOISE66.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL287 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL287 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002too early to trust
NOISE181 / 800 BIP