MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jack Leiter
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jack Leiter

TEX·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.80 +0.70 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.76
ROSK 64ERA 4.55WHIP 1.37W 2–4SV 0

Leiter is a sell — skill below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 4.80 — 0.70 runs above the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trustworthy. The story is not bad luck: his BABIP-against has not been dramatically suppressed or inflated. The skill metrics themselves are below average. He allows more barrels than league (10.3% vs. 8.0%), his expected wOBA allowed is .337, 22 points above league, and his walk rate is 9.9%, nearly two points above the 8.0% average. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity are bright spots, but the total package is a pitcher performing a tick below average with no noise to fix. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, confirming the trend. Sell. 64 K and 4.55 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP make this arm a streaming-only candidate at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.80 +0.70 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
233 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
233 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
xERA4.80
4.80*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.70vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
ERA5.29
5.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.4%
norm23.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
355 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
355 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
.301*
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
233 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
96.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1397 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.4%→23.2%signal64 K — K% 23.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.9% → projected 23.2% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 4.80signal4.55 ERA — xERA 4.80 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop64 K ROS, 4.55 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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