MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Justin Foscue
247 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Justin Foscue

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.325) — BABIP 0.327 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Foscue is a hold — league-average skill with one number due to drift

His expected wOBA is .325 against a league average of .315, and he has the plate appearances for that number to be reliable. It's not a skill that separates him from the pack, but it isn't dragging him down either — and it has been stepping up across the sample, which is the part worth watching. His actual wOBA of .354 sits above his expected figure, and the reason is his BABIP of .327, 32 points over league average with 164 balls in play of the roughly 800 needed to trust it. That gap will give some back. The supporting numbers say the same thing: exit velocity of 89.3 mph and a 42.1% hard-hit rate both sit just over league, real but unremarkable, while his 25.1% strikeout rate runs a bit hot. There's no edge here in either direction. Hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.325)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.327 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
believable since Jun 1489.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
164 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
247 / 160 PA
wOBA.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
247 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.1%
25.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
247 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
247 / 120 PA
BABIP.327
.327*
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA
Chase %27.8%
27.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.4%→9.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.4% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 9.9%.
BABIP 0.327→0.305 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.327 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.299 (xBA 0.245) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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