118 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Justin Foscue
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.360); BABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .254R 12RBI 16SB 0
Foscue is a hold — league average with nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .255 YTD → .254 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.360)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.360
lg avg .315 ▲+.045vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 160 PA
wOBA.388
lg avg .315 ▲+.073vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
118 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
118 / 60 PA
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.5% 0.0%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 120 PA
BABIP.329
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
118 / 50 PA
Chase %28.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
118 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.0%→12.0%signal4 HR — Barrel% 13.0% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 12.0%.
BABIP 0.329→0.324 regressednoise.254 AVG — BABIP 0.329 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.324 (xBA 0.262) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup12 R — his run rate over ~138 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~138 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~138 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.