week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Trevor Williams
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.84); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Williams is a hold — average skill, nothing unstable to move it.
ROS projects K 1 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.3%—+9.4% ▲vs his ~18.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 TBF
ERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
28.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +9.4% ▲
120 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.4% norm — expect it to fall.
120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.2 mphvs his norm —
514 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→22.4%signal0 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~18.9% → projected 22.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.84 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.