MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Cole Winn

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.93); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0–2

Winn is a hold — league average with no clear edge.

ROS projects K 23 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.1%+1.3%vs his ~21.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.93)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
44.0%*
lg avg 40.0% +4.0%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −0.7%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
.340*
lg avg .315 +.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league averageexpect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
xERA4.93
4.93*
lg avg 4.10 +0.83vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
ERA6.11
6.11*
lg avg 4.10 +2.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
norm23.1%*
lg avg 22.0% +1.1%vs his norm +1.3%
156 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.6%vs his norm −2.1% Walk % is below his ~8.5% normexpect it to rise.
156 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 +.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
15.1%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.1%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 28.5% +7.8%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +1.2 mphvs his norm —
564 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.1%→22.4%signal19 K — K% 23.1% (signal) tempered to career ~21.8% → projected 22.4% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 4.93noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.93 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups