Cole Winn
Winn is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is below average.
His BABIP-against is .336, 41 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 149. That gap is why his ERA sits at 5.63 — the surface overstates the damage. But strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.88, .78 above the league average of 4.10, and that number has already cleared its sample threshold. His expected wOBA allowed is .337, also above league. He misses bats — a 14.8% swinging-strike rate well above average — but the contact he allows is hard and the expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. The panic is wrong; so is buying. Hold. With a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in the ROS line, this is a drop-tier arm — waiver fodder, not a hold you build around.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.4%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm
- Strikeout %22.8%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~21.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable — the 5.63 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.88 is +0.78 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.