week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cole Winn
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.93); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0–2
Winn is a hold — league average with no clear edge.
ROS projects K 23 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.1%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~21.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.93)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
xERA4.93
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
156 / 200 TBF
ERA6.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
156 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −2.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.5% norm — expect it to rise.
156 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
156 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
564 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.1%→22.4%signal19 K — K% 23.1% (signal) tempered to career ~21.8% → projected 22.4% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 4.93noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.93 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.