Is Nicky Lopez a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Nicky Lopez's rest-of-season outlook?

84.7 mph exit velo, zero barrels, .270 xwOBA — contact can't carry it.

270 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekNO CALL

Nicky Lopez

TEX·2B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

new call as of October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Lopez is a sell — the contact is light and the line is honest.

He is averaging 84.7 mph off the bat, more than four mph below league, with a hard-hit rate of 22.2% against a league average of 40%. He has 207 batted balls, well past the point where those numbers become reliable, and he has not barreled a single ball all season. His expected wOBA is .270 — .045 below the league average of .315 — and his actual wOBA of .286 sits close enough that there is no bad-luck story inflating the gap. His expected wOBA has also been stepping down across the sample, so the trend is pointing the wrong way. The one thing he does well is avoid strikeouts, with a 16.3% rate, but a low-strikeout hitter with no power and a 4.4% walk rate is not a profile that generates much. The bat is what the numbers say it is. Sell. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is waiver-wire dead weight — fringe streaming-only, cut him loose.

VS His Norm

Barrel %0.0%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~1.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo84.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.3 mphvs his norm —

207 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %22.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−17.8%vs his norm —

207 / 50 BBE

Barrel %0.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm −1.4% ▼

207 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.270

lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —

270 / 160 PA

wOBA.286

lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —

270 / 200 PA

Strikeout %16.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —

270 / 60 PA

Walk %4.4%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —

270 / 120 PA

BABIP.325

lg avg .295 ▲+.030vs his norm +.056 ▲BABIP is above his ~.269 norm — expect it to fall.

207 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.6%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —

270 / 50 PA

Chase %34.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —

270 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 0.0%→0.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 0.0% (signal) lifted to career ~1.4% → projected 0.7%.

BABIP 0.325→0.294 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.325 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.248) → 0.294.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 10 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons