MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob deGrom
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jacob deGrom

TEX·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.43, 0.67 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 70ERA 3.43WHIP 1.06W 2–5SV 0

deGrom is a buy — elite command, dominant stuff.

His expected ERA is 3.43, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying skills are elite: he strikes out 30.4% of batters, nearly ten percentage points above the league norm, and walks just 5.5%, below average. His 17.9% whiff rate is a full seven points above league. The fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample, now at 97.2 mph — more than three ticks above the league average. That combination of elite velocity and command is exactly what you want. There is no luck inflating the line; the production is earned. His xERA is stable and inching downward. This is a real, durable skill set. Buy. 70 K and a 3.43 ERA over 70 IP make deGrom a top-tier asset worth acquiring.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.4%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~30.6% career norm
  • Walk %5.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.43, 0.67 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
44.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
257 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
257 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.289
.289*
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
xERA3.43
3.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.67vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
ERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.4%
norm30.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
401 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
401 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
.267*
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
257 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.9%
17.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
97.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
1605 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.4%→30.5%signal70 K — K% 30.4% (signal) held to career ~30.6% → projected 30.5% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 3.43signal3.43 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.43 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.06 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.06 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard70 K ROS, 3.43 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups