MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob deGrom
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jacob deGrom

TEX·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 16ERA 3.54WHIP 1.14W 1–1SV 0

deGrom is a buy — the expected ERA says the skill is real.

His xERA is 3.54, 0.56 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .292, 23 points below league average, which confirms the contact he gives up is soft. The strikeout and walk rates back it up: he strikes out 29.9% of batters and walks only 6.5%, both clearly better than league. His fastball is at 97.3 mph and has been stepping up, not dropping. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which means he is getting stronger. Nothing here is luck: his swinging-strike rate is 17.3% and his chase rate is 34.9%, both well above league. The production is earned. Buy. 16 K and a 3.54 ERA from a deep-league arm — add now and ride the strikeout upside.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.5%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %29.9%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~30.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
370 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
370 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
.292*
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
582 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
582 / 200 TBF
ERA3.96
3.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.14vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
143.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.9%
norm29.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
582 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
norm6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
582 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
370 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.3%
17.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
582 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.9%
34.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
582 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
2380 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.9%→30.1%signal16 K — K% 29.9% (signal) held to career ~30.6% → projected 30.1% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep16 K ROS, 3.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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