MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jacob deGrom
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jacob deGrom

TEX·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 3.47WHIP 1.17W 0–0SV 0

deGrom is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned.

His xERA is 3.47, .63 below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced 668 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact allowed backs it up: .288 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, with a 7.9% barrel rate right at league. That meant nothing was propped up by luck. He strikes out 30.1% of batters against a 22% league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 17.2% is more than six points above league. His fastball is averaging 97.3 mph, three mph above league, and it has been trending up across the sample while his xERA has stepped down. He walks only 6.9%, so nothing undercuts the strikeout gains. The skill is earned and the trend is moving the right way. Buy. The 0 K / 3.47 ERA / 1.17 WHIP line is a deep-league stash only, not a must-add, but the skills merit the speculative grab.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.9%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %30.1%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~30.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
45.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
418 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
418 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
668 / 200 TBF
xERA3.47
3.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.63vs his norm —
668 / 200 TBF
ERA4.21
4.21*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
162.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.1%
norm30.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
668 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
668 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
.301*
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
418 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.2%
17.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
668 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
668 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
2735 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.1%→30.2%signal0 K — K% 30.1% (signal) held to career ~30.6% → projected 30.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.47signal3.47 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.47 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.47 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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