Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryJacob
128K →130
2.89ERA ←3.79
1.17WHIP →1.05
8–17W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryJacob
72K →78
1.96ERA ←3.48
0.96WHIP ←1.01
7W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Jacob deGrom
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.79)
Chase Burns: 128 K / 2.89 ERA. Jacob deGrom: 130 K / 3.79 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).