Rest of Season Projection
GavinCategoryJacob
123K →127
4.17ERA →3.79
1.18WHIP →1.05
8–17W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
GavinCategoryJacob
88K ←78
3.07ERA ←3.48
1.09WHIP →1.01
8W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gavin Williams
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.21 is 1.01 above the ERA — regression coming
Jacob deGrom
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.79)
Gavin Williams: 123 K / 4.17 ERA. Jacob deGrom: 127 K / 3.79 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).