178 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
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Joc Pederson
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Pederson is a buy — elite hard-hit, no luck inflating.
His contact quality has stepped up across the season, now at 45.9% hard-hit and 91.2 mph exit velo on 111 batted balls — well past the 50-BBE stabilization point. His barrel rate of 9.0% sits above league average, and all three numbers are climbing. The skill is fully reflected in his expected wOBA of .344, which is .029 above league and stable at 178 PA. His actual wOBA tracks closely, so there is no luck story pulling the line up or down. His strikeout rate is right at league average, and his walk rate is elite at 15.2%. The bat is real, the volume is there, and the sample backs it up. Buy.
Buy
med0.66
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.344, +0.029 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL111 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL111 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL178 / 160 PA
wOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036too early to trust
NOISE178 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL178 / 60 PA
Walk %15.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL178 / 120 PA
BABIP.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033too early to trust
NOISE111 / 800 BIP