MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Nimmo
384 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Brandon Nimmo

TEX·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.73
ROSAVG .280HR 6R 20RBI 16SB 2

Nimmo is a buy — elite contact, production earned.

His contact quality has been stepping up across the sample, and those numbers are now locked in as reliable. His hard-hit rate is 52.4% on 267 batted balls, his average exit velocity is 92.6 mph, and his barrel rate is 13.1% — all well above league average and past their stabilization points. The production is earned: his expected wOBA is .379, a full 64 points above the league average of .315, and that number is stable at 384 plate appearances. His actual wOBA sits at .330, below his xwOBA, which is unusual — and his BABIP is .318, slightly above the .295 league average but not yet reliable at 267 balls in play. Expect some BABIP-fueled average regression, but the underlying skill is real and steadily improving. Buy. 6 HR / 20 R / 16 RBI / 2 SB / .280 AVG: a deep-league asset worth acquiring for counting stats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.1%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~9.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
267 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %52.4%
52.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+12.4%vs his norm —
267 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.1%
norm13.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
267 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.379
.379*
lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —
384 / 160 PA
wOBA.330
.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
384 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.1%
21.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
384 / 60 PA
Walk %7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
384 / 120 PA
BABIP.318
norm.318*
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm +.020 ▲BABIP is above his ~.298 norm — expect it to fall.
267 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.1%→11.4%signal6 HR — Barrel% 13.1% (signal) tempered to career ~9.1% → projected 11.4%.
BABIP 0.318→0.334 regressednoise.280 AVG — BABIP 0.318 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.343 (xBA 0.293) → 0.334.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~199 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~199 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 58 G) over ~199 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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