MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chase Silseth
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Chase Silseth

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.14); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 4ERA 3.99WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0

Silseth is a hold — league-average skill, nothing out of whack.

His expected ERA is 4.14, and the league average is 4.10 — that is league average, and it is based on 241 batters faced, well past the point where the number becomes reliable. The same goes for his expected wOBA allowed, .314 against a league average of .315. What he allows on contact tilts slightly favorable: a 32.6% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, on 141 batted balls. The flaw is the walks, 14.1% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, and that rate is stable now, not early-season noise. He offsets some of it with a 26.1% strikeout rate. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, which keeps this from being a buy. Nothing here is unstable enough to sell. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %14.1%+2.5%vs his ~11.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.1%+2.4%vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.14)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.6%
believable since May 3032.6%*
lg avg 40.0% −7.4%vs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.2%vs his norm —
141 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
.314*
lg avg .315 −.001vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
xERA4.14
4.14*
lg avg 4.10 +0.04vs his norm —
241 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
2.98*
lg avg 4.10 −1.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to rise.
54.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.1%
norm26.1%*
lg avg 22.0% +4.1%vs his norm +2.4%
241 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.1%
norm14.1%*
lg avg 8.0% +6.1%vs his norm +2.5%
241 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
.299*
lg avg .295 +.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
141 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.3%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% +1.9%vs his norm —
241 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +1.9 mphvs his norm —
974 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.1%→25.0%signal4 K — K% 26.1% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 25.0% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.14signal3.99 ERA — xERA 4.14 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 14.1% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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