MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chase Silseth
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Chase Silseth

TEX·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Silseth is a hold — league-average run prevention, nothing unstable.

His expected ERA is 4.09, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 271 batters, past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .311, right against the .315 league mark, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 32.5% sits well below the 40% league average across 157 batted balls. The stuff behind it is not neutral, though: he strikes out 27.3% of batters and gets a 15.5% swinging-strike rate, both comfortably above league. The walks pull it back — 12.9% against a league average of 8.0%. That trade of whiffs for free passes is the shape of the profile, not a flaw to fix. Nothing here is running on luck in either direction, and there's no baseline or trend to lean on. Hold. 0 K / 3.95 ERA / 1.40 WHIP is a drop-tier drag; hold what you have and stream elsewhere.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.3%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm
  • Walk %12.9%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~11.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.5%
believable since May 3032.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
157 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
157 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
ERA3.60
3.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
norm27.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
271 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.9%
norm12.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
1089 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→25.8%signal0 K — K% 27.3% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 25.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 12.9% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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