MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jakob Junis
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Jakob Junis

TEX·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65
ROSK 0ERA 4.17WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0–0

Junis is a sell — his skill sits below league and nothing is hiding it.

The stat that does the most work here is his expected ERA: 4.42, a third of a run above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters — 234 — for that number to be trusted. There is no luck story to explain it away, and the trend has been going the wrong direction across the sample rather than settling lower. The misses are not there either: he strikes out 16.2% of batters against a 22.0% league average, with an 8.4% swinging-strike rate well short of league. His contact allowed looks ordinary, not dominant — a .322 expected wOBA allowed and a fastball averaging 92.3 mph, two ticks below league. Nothing in this profile points to a run-prevention skill that the surface line is misrepresenting. Sell. 0 K and 0 SV at a 4.17 ERA makes him a drop — waiver-wire fodder, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.2%—−5.0% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.7%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~6.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.42 +0.32 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
3.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
believable since Sep 6.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
4.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —
234 / 200 TBF
ERA3.64
3.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
54.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.2%
norm16.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm −5.0% ▼
234 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
234 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
234 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
845 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.2%→18.5%signal0 K — K% 16.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42signal4.17 ERA — xERA 4.42 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop3 SV, 4.17 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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