MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jakob Junis
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Jakob Junis

TEX·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Junis is a sell-high — his ERA is built on unsustainable luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.28 is 1.53 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.7%
30.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
3.28
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82too early to trust
NOISE98 / 200 TBF
ERA1.75
1.75
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.35too early to trust
NOISE25.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL98 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.1%
5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%too early to trust
NOISE98 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.200
.200
lg avg .295 ▼−.095too early to trust
NOISE75 / 800 BIP