week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jakob Junis
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.06 is 1.32 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.93WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0–1
Junis is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.2%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
- Walk %5.9%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~6.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.06 is 1.32 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
204 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —
204 / 200 TBF
ERA2.74
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
204 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
204 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
204 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
204 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
729 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→19.2%signal4 K — K% 17.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 19.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06signal3.93 ERA — xERA 4.06 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop4 SV, 3.93 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.