week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jakob Junis
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.79 is 0.99 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 2–3
Junis is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.9%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.79 is 0.99 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
107 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
107 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 200 TBF
xERA3.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.31vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 200 TBF
ERA2.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.30vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
143 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.0% norm — expect it to rise.
143 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
107 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
517 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→20.2%signal15 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 20.2% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.79noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.79 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 4.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.