week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Robby Ahlstrom
data as of July 20, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 20, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.80); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 33ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Ahlstrom is a hold — league average, limited data.
Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.80)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm —
50 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 200 TBF
xERA4.80
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.70vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 200 TBF
ERA6.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
14.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.9%vs his norm —Strikeout % is below the ~22.0% league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
259 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.1%→14.5%noise33 K — K% 12.1% (noise) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.5% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 4.80noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.80 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.65 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.