week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Robby Ahlstrom
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.17); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 7ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Ahlstrom is a hold — league average, and that's the whole story.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 7 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.17)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA4.17
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA6.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.306
lg avg .295 ▲+.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
590 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→21.2%signal7 K — K% 20.5% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.17noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.17 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.