week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Robby Ahlstrom
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.32); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Ahlstrom is a hold — nothing here is trending either way.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.32)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
xERA4.32
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.22vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
ERA6.08
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
164 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
648 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.7%→21.4%signal0 K — K% 20.7% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.32noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.32 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.