MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
237 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Elias Díaz

TEX·C
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Díaz is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .269, 46 points below the league average of .315, and his 237 plate appearances are past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA of .287 is close to the expected figure, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down — the surface and the skill agree. The contact quality backs that up: 88.5 mph average exit velocity and a 40.5% hard-hit rate, both essentially league average, which is not enough thump to carry a catcher's bat. Oddly, the expected number has been stepping down across the sample, not recovering. He also walks just 3.8% of the time while chasing 37.8% of pitches off the plate and swinging through 15.5%, so the on-base floor is thin. Nothing here is waiting to break his way. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is waiver-level, streaming-only — a drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.5%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~6.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
88.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.5%
40.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.269
.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
237 / 160 PA
wOBA.287
.287*
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
237 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
237 / 60 PA
Walk %3.8%
3.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
237 / 120 PA
BABIP.276
norm.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm −.033 ▼BABIP is below his ~.308 norm — expect it to rise.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
237 / 50 PA
Chase %37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
237 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.5%→7.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.5% (signal) tempered to career ~6.0% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.276→0.240 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.276 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.216) → 0.240.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 10 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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