MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Adam Macko
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Adam Macko

TEX·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.378 elevated and unstable, the 5.08 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 3ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0

Macko is a hold — the ERA is inflated, but the skill is below league.

His ERA is 5.08, and that number is not telling the truth about how he has pitched. His BABIP-against is .378, 83 points above the league average of .295, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 85. So the damage on the scoreboard overstates what he has actually done. The problem is what he regresses toward: his xERA is 4.50, about .40 above league average, though that number itself is short of the 200 batters it needs. His strikeout rate of 22.9% and swinging-strike rate of 13.6% are both near league, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are actually better than league. This is a limited sample with no baseline to lean on. Not a panic sell, not a buy. Hold. 3 K and a 3.70 ERA over the ROS is a deep-league hold only — stash, don't chase.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.378 elevated and unstable — the 5.08 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.50 is +0.40 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
believable since Jul 735.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.326
.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 200 TBF
xERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 200 TBF
ERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
28.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
22.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
131 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.378
.378*
lg avg .295 ▲+.083vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
524 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→23.1%signal3 K — K% 22.9% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 23.1% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.50noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.50 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups