week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Adam Macko
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.70); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Macko is a hold — league-average profile with no edge either way.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 14 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.70)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.334
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA4.70
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.60vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA4.34
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
352 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.2%→23.4%signal14 K — K% 23.2% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 23.4% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 4.70noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.70 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.