Who's more valuable, rest of season
Lucas Giolito.
He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA, WHIP, and wins. Connelly Early’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.
Head-to-head
◀
K
ERA
▶
WHIP
▶
W
▶
SV n/a
Lucas Giolito wins 3 categories (ERA, WHIP, W); Connelly Early wins 1 (K); SV n/a.
04
Under the hood
Underlying skill — each value vs league avgFastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Connelly Early
94.0
Lucas Giolito
90.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
11.1%
Lucas Giolito
9.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
23.8%
Lucas Giolito
13.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Connelly Early
31.4%
Lucas Giolito
19.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
40.9%
Lucas Giolito
43.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
10.6%
Lucas Giolito
4.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Connelly Early
.320
Lucas Giolito
.358
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05
The tape
Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Connelly Early
2.145.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.95
4.24
Lucas Giolito
2.145.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.97
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Connelly Early
.9301.97
now 1.16
1.31
Lucas Giolito
.9301.97
now 1.74
1.30
Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Connelly Early
4077.40
now 57
42
Lucas Giolito
4077.40
now 6
24
Winshigher is better
Connelly Early
.0009
now 5
2–5
Lucas Giolito
.0009
now 2
3–7
SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellConnelly Early — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · wait & seeLucas Giolito — hold.conf 0.50