week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Lucas Giolito
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.51); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 31ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 4–9SV 0
Giolito is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 31 ROS, ERA 4.97 YTD → 4.10 ROS, WHIP 1.74 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.0%—−11.4% ▼vs his ~24.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.51)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.358
lg avg .315 ▲+.043vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 TBF
xERA5.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 TBF
ERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm −11.4% ▼
138 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm +7.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.2% norm — expect it to fall.
138 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Chase %19.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.0%→19.8%signal31 K — K% 13.0% (signal) lifted to career ~24.4% → projected 19.8% over ~42 remaining IP.
xERA 5.51noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.51 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 13 IP.
BB% 16.7% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 17% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.95 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop31 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.