Rest of Season Projection
JacobCategoryLucas
155K ←50
2.20ERA ←4.10
0.98WHIP ←1.30
6–13W →7–16
0SV0
Current Season
JacobCategoryLucas
108K ←6
1.65ERA ←4.97
0.79WHIP ←1.74
6W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jacob Misiorowski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.20 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Giolito
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.12)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jacob Misiorowski: 155 K / 2.20 ERA. Lucas Giolito: 50 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).