MLB Daily DeltaWeek 28 · October 3, 2026
Portrait of Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito
SD · P
Change to
Matt Waldron
WSH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 0–0, 4 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Lucas Giolito wins 0 (none); Matt Waldron wins 0 (none); 4 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
90.8
Matt Waldron
92.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
9.8%
Matt Waldron
8.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
13.0%
Matt Waldron
17.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Lucas Giolito
19.0%
Matt Waldron
31.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
43.8%
Matt Waldron
36.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
4.2%
Matt Waldron
5.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Lucas Giolito
.358
Matt Waldron
.291
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Lucas Giolito
2.328.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.97
4.10
Matt Waldron
2.328.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.49
4.08
WHIPlower is better
Lucas Giolito
1.121.92
now 1.74
1.30
Matt Waldron
1.121.92
now 1.71
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
4030.80
now 6
0
Matt Waldron
4030.80
now 22
0
Winshigher is better
Lucas Giolito
.0002.80
now 2
0–0
Matt Waldron
.0002.80
now 1
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeLucas Giolito — hold.conf 0.50
Buy LowMatt Waldron — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
Tweet