Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryKeider
102K ←74
4.45ERA →3.44
1.30WHIP →1.26
6–12W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryKeider
57K ←43
2.95ERA ←3.69
1.16WHIP →1.00
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.64 is 1.38 above the ERA — regression coming
Keider Montero
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.44)
Connelly Early: 102 K / 4.45 ERA. Keider Montero: 74 K / 3.44 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).