MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sean Burke
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Sean Burke

CWS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.81); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 11ERA 3.81WHIP 1.28W 0–1SV 0

Burke is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable pulling it

His expected ERA is 3.81, sitting just under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 649 batters — well past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. Nothing on his line is being propped up or dragged down by a luck stat. He strikes out 26% of batters, above the league's 22%, but he also walks 8.6%, a touch above average, so the two mostly cancel. His xwOBA allowed is .302 against a .315 league mark, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are both right at league. The one wrinkle: his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is a mild lean toward the skill holding. That is not enough to chase. Hold. Just 11 K and a 0-1 W ROS: a deep-league hold, not an asset to chase on waivers.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.0%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.6%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.81)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.6%
38.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
415 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
415 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
649 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —
649 / 200 TBF
ERA3.58
3.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
156 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
norm26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
649 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
649 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
415 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
649 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
649 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
2598 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→25.3%signal11 K — K% 26.0% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 25.3% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.81signal3.81 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.81 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep11 K ROS, 3.81 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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