MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Sean Burke
week 31
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Sean Burke

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 0ERA 3.78WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Burke is a buy — the strikeout work is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.78, a third of a run better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to mean something. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the season, which is the direction you want. His expected wOBA allowed is .300, 15 points better than league, with the sample well past the reliable mark. The swing-and-miss work backs it up: he strikes out 25.8% of batters, draws chases on 31.7% of pitches outside the zone, and gets swings and misses on 12.5%, all above league. His fastball has climbed to 94.8 mph. Nothing here is propped up by a lucky stat — this is the level he's at. Buy. 0 K in the ROS line, yet the 3.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP hold — deep-league asset, not a must-add; stash him now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.8%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
459 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
459 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
716 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
716 / 200 TBF
ERA3.34
3.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.76vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
172.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
norm25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
716 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
716 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
459 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
716 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
716 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
2878 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→25.1%signal0 K — K% 25.8% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 25.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78signal3.78 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.78 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.78 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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