week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Sean Burke
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Burke is a buy — real skill, no luck needed.
His expected ERA is 3.63, which is 0.47 below the league average of 4.10, and that number is reliable after 270 batters faced. His actual expected wOBA allowed is .302, also below league average, confirming the results are earned. His walk rate is 6.7%, a full point-and-change below the 8.0% average, showing control that limits free baserunners. The contact quality he gives up is also suppressed: his hard-hit rate allowed is 35.3% versus a 40% league mark, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.9% versus 8%. All of these are stable metrics. There is no unsustainable BABIP or strand rate propping him up. The skill is real and the data has been trending the right direction. Buy.
Buy
med0.74
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL187 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL187 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL270 / 200 TBF
xERA3.63
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL270 / 200 TBF
ERA3.72
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.38too early to trust
NOISE65.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL270 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL270 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.282
lg avg .295 ▼−.013too early to trust
NOISE187 / 800 BIP