week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Sean Burke
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.61, 0.49 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 51ERA 3.61WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Burke is a buy — his skill is real and trending up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.4%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
- Walk %7.6%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.61, 0.49 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
280 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
280 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
435 / 200 TBF
xERA3.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.49vs his norm —
435 / 200 TBF
ERA3.41
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
105.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
435 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
435 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
280 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
435 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
435 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1708 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.4%→25.3%signal51 K — K% 26.4% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 25.3% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 3.61signal3.61 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.61 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep51 K ROS, 3.61 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.