MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nolan McLean
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Nolan McLean

NYM·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 68ERA 3.48WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 0

McLean is a buy — elite contact suppression, stable skill.

His expected ERA sits at 3.48, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The reason is clear: he suppresses hard contact, allowing a 34.7% hard-hit rate and a 6.6% barrel rate — both comfortably below league. His 27.9% strikeout rate is well above average, the walk rate is in line, and the fastball velocity, 96.1 mph, is up over the sample. That velocity is a genuine skill, not a blip. The actual ERA will vary, but the run-prevention toolkit is real. Buy. 68 K with a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP makes him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~28.9% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.7%
34.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
271 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
271 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
448 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
3.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —
448 / 200 TBF
ERA3.52
3.52*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.58vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
107.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
norm27.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
448 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
448 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
271 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
448 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
448 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1789 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→28.2%signal68 K — K% 27.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.9% → projected 28.2% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 3.48signal3.48 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.48 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep68 K ROS, 3.48 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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