week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekBUY
Nolan McLean
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.62 is 0.56 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.62WHIP 1.27W 0–1SV 0
McLean is a sell-high — that ERA is riding a BABIP illusion.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.7%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~28.9% career norm
- Walk %9.7%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.62 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
412 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
412 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
671 / 200 TBF
xERA3.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —
671 / 200 TBF
ERA3.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
161.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
671 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
671 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
412 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
671 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
671 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
2649 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.7%→27.2%signal15 K — K% 26.7% (signal) lifted to career ~28.9% → projected 27.2% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.62signal3.62 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.62 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep15 K ROS, 3.62 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.