MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nolan McLean
week 31
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Nolan McLean

NYM·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.74
ROSK 0ERA 3.63WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

McLean is a buy — the velocity is climbing and the runs are earned

His fastball is sitting at 96 mph, two ticks above league average, and it has been climbing across the sample. That added heat is showing up in his results: his expected ERA is 3.63, well under the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down as the season has gone on. He strikes out 26% of batters, comfortably above league, and the contact he allows backs the run prevention up — a .294 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, with hard-hit and barrel rates both below average. The walk rate runs a little high at 9.4%, but that is the only soft spot. This is a pitcher getting better, not one riding a hot stretch. Buy. With 0 K ROS still in the bank at a 3.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, deep-league pitching is an asset worth stashing before the strikeouts land.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.0%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~28.9% career norm
  • Walk %9.4%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
468 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
468 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
.294*
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
747 / 200 TBF
xERA3.63
3.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —
747 / 200 TBF
ERA3.16
3.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.94vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
179.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
norm26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
747 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
norm9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
747 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
468 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
747 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
747 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
2914 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→26.6%signal0 K — K% 26.0% (signal) lifted to career ~28.9% → projected 26.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.63signal3.63 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.63 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.4% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.63 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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