Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryNolan
130K →131
2.89ERA ←3.35
1.17WHIP ←1.24
8–17W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryNolan
72K →77
1.96ERA ←4.21
0.96WHIP ←1.12
7W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Nolan McLean
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league — production is earned
Chase Burns: 130 K / 2.89 ERA. Nolan McLean: 131 K / 3.35 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).