Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryPaul
95K →129
3.18ERA →2.28
1.29WHIP →1.04
4–9W →7–14
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryPaul
61K →75
2.50ERA ←2.89
1.08WHIP →0.86
4W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Elder
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.68 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Skenes projects 129 K to Elder's 95, with a full 0.90 ERA gap (2.28 vs 3.18). The verdicts reflect actual skill: buy Skenes, sell Elder.