MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekBUY
last week—

Max Fried

NYY·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Buy stable xERA 2.54, 1.56 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 83ERA 2.54WHIP 1.31W 4–9SV 0

Fried is a buy — elite contact suppression, no luck.

His expected ERA is 2.54, a full 1.56 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The driver is his contact quality allowed: a barrel rate of just 1.8% and a hard-hit rate of 30.8%, both elite and stable on 169 batted balls. His expected wOBA allowed is .253, well below league. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, confirming the trend. His strikeout and walk rates are both near league average, so the run prevention is coming from suppressing damage, not from avoiding contact or from batted-ball luck. His BABIP-against isn't artificially low — this is earned. Buy. 83 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.31 WHIP: a reliable asset with elite damage suppression — acquire.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.9%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.54, 1.56 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.8%
30.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.8%
1.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.253
.253*
lg avg .315 ▼−.062vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
xERA2.54
2.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.56vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
ERA3.21
3.21*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.89vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
240 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
240 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
.251*
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→22.1%signal83 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 22.1% over ~97 remaining IP.
xERA 2.54signal2.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard83 K ROS, 2.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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