week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Max Fried
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xERA 2.48, 1.62 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 41ERA 2.48WHIP 1.28W 2–4SV 0
Fried is a buy — elite suppression, no luck needed.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.3%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm
- Walk %7.8%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.48, 1.62 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
177 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
177 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.246
lg avg .315 ▼−.069vs his norm —
256 / 200 TBF
xERA2.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.62vs his norm —
256 / 200 TBF
ERA2.97
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.13vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
256 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
256 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
256 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
256 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
974 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→22.9%signal41 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 22.9% over ~49 remaining IP.
xERA 2.48signal2.48 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.48 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep41 K ROS, 2.48 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.