MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Max Fried

NYY·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xERA 2.51, 1.59 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.51WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Fried is a buy — the contact suppression is real and stable

Nobody is squaring him up. His hard-hit rate allowed is 29.8% against a league average of 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 2.4% against 8.0% — both past the sample size where contact quality becomes trustworthy, at 295 batted balls. That suppression shows up in his expected wOBA allowed of .246, far below the .315 league mark, and in his expected ERA of 2.51, a run and a half under league. The supporting skills are steady: a 24.0% strikeout rate, a 7.6% walk rate, and an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. His fastball has been ticking up across the sample to 94.8 mph, and his expected ERA has been stepping down right along with it. This is earned, not lucky. Buy. A 2.51 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP is an asset — acquire now before the market catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.6%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.0%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.51, 1.59 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm —
295 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.4%
2.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
295 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.246
.246*
lg avg .315 ▼−.069vs his norm —
434 / 200 TBF
xERA2.51
2.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.59vs his norm —
434 / 200 TBF
ERA2.80
2.80*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.30vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
112.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
norm24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
434 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
434 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
295 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
434 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
434 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1696 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→23.9%signal0 K — K% 24.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 23.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.51signal2.51 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.51 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.51 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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