Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryDylan
112K →135
2.92ERA ←2.95
1.15WHIP ←1.17
7–15W ←3–6
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryDylan
72K →103
1.96ERA ←2.91
0.96WHIP ←1.16
7W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.92 is 0.78 above the ERA — regression coming
Dylan Cease
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.95, 1.15 below league — production is earned
Chase Burns: 112 K / 2.92 ERA. Dylan Cease: 135 K / 2.95 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).