MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Dylan Cease

TOR·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xERA 2.77, 1.33 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 70ERA 2.77WHIP 1.19W 1–3SV 0

Cease is a buy — elite skill, earned results.

His xERA is 2.77, which is 1.33 runs below league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying skill metrics are even better: he allows just 5.0% barrels (league 8.0%) and a .260 xwOBA — 55 points below league. His stuff is elite — 97.5 mph fastball that has ticked up, 36.5% strikeout rate, 16.4% swinging-strike rate, and 33.5% chase rate, all well above average. The xERA has been stepping down across the sample, suggesting he is still improving. There is no luck propping up his ERA; the production is earned. Buy. 70 K and a 2.77 ERA make him a standard-league asset; acquire with confidence.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %36.5%—+7.4% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.77, 1.33 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm —
239 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
239 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.260
.260*
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
xERA2.77
2.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.33vs his norm —
457 / 200 TBF
ERA2.46
2.46*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.64vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.5%
norm36.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.5%vs his norm +7.4% ▲
457 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
457 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
239 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.4%
16.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
457 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.5 mph
97.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
1939 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 36.5%→34.2%signal70 K — K% 36.5% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 34.2% over ~49 remaining…
xERA 2.77signal2.77 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.77 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard70 K ROS, 2.77 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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