week 12
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Dylan Cease
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
Buy stable xERA 2.95, 1.15 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 135ERA 2.95WHIP 1.17W 3–6SV 0
Cease is a buy — elite strikeout skill, earned ERA.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %36.8%—+7.7% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm
- Walk %9.6%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~10.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.95, 1.15 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
xERA2.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.15vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
ERA2.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 200 IP
Strikeout %36.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+14.8%vs his norm +7.7% ▲
280 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
280 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 36.8%→33.6%signal135 K — K% 36.8% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 33.6% over ~98 remainin…
xERA 2.95signal2.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rostershallow135 K ROS, 2.95 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.