week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Dylan Cease
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.92 is 0.52 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.86 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.92WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 0
Cease is a sell-high — the ERA hides a coming correction.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %34.9%—+5.8% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm
- Walk %11.4%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~10.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.92 is 0.52 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
365 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
365 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —
685 / 200 TBF
xERA2.92
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.18vs his norm —
685 / 200 TBF
ERA2.40
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.70vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.9%vs his norm +5.8% ▲
685 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
685 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
365 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
685 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
685 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
2895 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.9%→33.6%signal0 K — K% 34.9% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 33.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.92signal2.92 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.92 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.92 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.