249 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Jonathan Aranda
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Aranda is a buy — elite contact quality, no luck needed.
Aranda's contact quality has stepped up throughout the season, with a 47.7% hard-hit rate that is well above league average and already stable at 151 batted ball events. His expected wOBA sits at .387, 72 points above the league average of .315, and that number has been climbing. His actual wOBA of .379 tracks right with it, so luck is not inflating his line. His walk rate of 14.1% is elite. The strikeout rate is a tick above league average but not a red flag. The skill is real, the trajectory is up, and the sample supports the call. Buy.
Buy
med0.74
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.387, +0.072 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.387
lg avg .315 ▲+.072trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 160 PA
wOBA.379
lg avg .315 ▲+.064trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 60 PA
Walk %14.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 120 PA
BABIP.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041too early to trust
NOISE151 / 800 BIP