Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryJonathan
8HR →15
53R ←52
45RBI →65
8SB ←0
.210AVG →.256
Current Season
ChristianCategoryJonathan
4HR →11
21R →34
18RBI →43
3SB ←0
.275AVG →.283
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jonathan Aranda
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.385, +0.070 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Jonathan Aranda: 15 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).