Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryJonathan
9HR →15
36R →52
36RBI →65
0SB0
.314AVG ←.256
Current Season
AndrewCategoryJonathan
1HR →11
10R →34
10RBI →43
0SB0
.354AVG ←.283
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Jonathan Aranda
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.385, +0.070 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Jonathan Aranda: 15 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).