171 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Andrew Vaughn
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.341 is 0.039 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.344 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .285R 21RBI 21SB 0
Vaughn is a sell-high — BABIP run is masking the real skill.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.8%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.344 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.341 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
171 / 160 PA
wOBA.380
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.9%vs his norm —
171 / 60 PA
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
171 / 120 PA
BABIP.344
lg avg .295 ▲+.049vs his norm +.057 ▲BABIP is above his ~.287 norm — expect it to fall.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
171 / 50 PA
Chase %22.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
171 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.8%→7.4%signal3 HR — Barrel% 3.8% (signal) lifted to career ~9.7% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.344→0.307 regressednoise.285 AVG — BABIP 0.344 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.300 (xBA 0.278) → 0.307.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~150 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~150 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~150 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.