MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Vaughn
331 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Andrew Vaughn

MIL·1B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.329 is 0.039 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.355 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Vaughn is a sell-high — BABIP is carrying a line his bat can't hold.

His actual wOBA is .368, but the number underneath it is .329 — 39 points lower once you strip out the bounces. That gap is his BABIP, .355 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 237, so that gap is luck, not a new skill. His expected wOBA has actually climbed across the sample, so this is a good hitter — just not a .368 one. The strikeout and walk rates back that up: 16% strikeouts against a league 22%, 10.6% walks, and a 7.5% swinging-strike rate well below the 11% norm. The plate discipline is real, the production is not this high. Sell high before the bounces stop. Sell high. Sell into the .355 BABIP now — the ROS line reads 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG, a drop-tier drag, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.1%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.355 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.329 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
believable since May 3090.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
237 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
237 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
norm5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
237 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
331 / 160 PA
wOBA.368
.368*
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —
331 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.0%
16.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
331 / 60 PA
Walk %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
331 / 120 PA
BABIP.355
norm.355*
lg avg .295 ▲+.060vs his norm +.068 ▲BABIP is above his ~.287 norm — expect it to fall.
237 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
331 / 50 PA
Chase %23.5%
23.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
331 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→7.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (signal) lifted to career ~9.7% → projected 7.2%.
BABIP 0.355→0.305 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.355 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.284 (xBA 0.264) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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