Is Andrew Vaughn a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is Andrew Vaughn's rest-of-season outlook?

BABIP .358 masks a 5.4% barrel rate.

313 PA · week 25

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekNO CALL

Andrew Vaughn

MIL·1B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

new call as of September 10, 2026

Sell High luck-free skill 0.335 is 0.040 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.358 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75

ROSHR 0AVG .281R 5RBI 5SB 0

Vaughn is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.

His actual wOBA is .375, but the .335 expected wOBA underneath it says the surface is running .040 hotter than the skill. The reason is his BABIP: .358 against a league average of .295, and that number is nowhere near reliable at 224 balls in play — it needs around 800 before it means anything. So the hot line is being propped up by a stat that will come back to earth. The contact is real, just not star-level: his barrel rate of 5.4% sits below the league average of 8.0%, even as his hard-hit rate and exit velocity are slightly above it. His strikeout and walk rates suggest the plate approach is fine. The skill is steady and rising; the line has already overshot it. Sell high. 5 R and 5 RBI with 0 HR ROS: sell the inflated line before it reverts — a deep-league hold, not a buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.4%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

babipNOISEBABIP 0.358 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —

224 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %43.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —

224 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −4.3% ▼

224 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.335

lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —

313 / 160 PA

wOBA.375

lg avg .315 ▲+.060vs his norm —

313 / 200 PA

Strikeout %15.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —

313 / 60 PA

Walk %10.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —

313 / 120 PA

BABIP.358

lg avg .295 ▲+.063vs his norm +.071 ▲BABIP is above his ~.287 norm — expect it to fall.

224 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —

313 / 50 PA

Chase %22.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —

313 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.4%→7.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) lifted to career ~9.7% → projected 7.4%.

BABIP 0.358→0.308 regressednoise.281 AVG — BABIP 0.358 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.289 (xBA 0.268) → 0.308.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.

slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~35 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons