73 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Andrew Vaughn
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Vaughn is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating the line.
His actual wOBA sits at .413, but the stat driving it is not reliable. His BABIP is .393 — 98 points above the league average of .295 — and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 57. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected wOBA is .347, which is the real signal, and that difference means regression is coming. His hard-hit rate is below league at 38.6%, and his average exit velocity is also slightly below average. He does keep his strikeout rate low at 11.0%, which helps the line, but it does not fix the BABIP hole. Limited data: this call rests on the clearest unsustainable stat in the sample. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.72
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL57 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL57 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%too early to trust
NOISE57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032too early to trust
NOISE73 / 160 PA
wOBA.413
lg avg .315 ▲+.098too early to trust
NOISE73 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL73 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%too early to trust
NOISE73 / 120 PA
BABIP.393
lg avg .295 ▲+.098too early to trust
NOISE57 / 800 BIP