Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryRafael
9HR →15
36R →40
36RBI →47
0SB0
.314AVG ←.230
Current Season
AndrewCategoryRafael
1HR →7
10R →26
10RBI →30
0SB0
.354AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).