Rest of Season Projection
RafaelCategorySpencer
15HR ←10
38R →39
44RBI ←42
0SB →2
.227AVG →.240
Current Season
RafaelCategorySpencer
7HR7
26R ←24
30RBI ←26
0SB →1
.251AVG →.289
What Each Player's System Trusts
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Spencer Horwitz
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.337)
Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 38 R. Spencer Horwitz: 10 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).