Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryNick
9HR →19
36R →58
36RBI →61
0SB →9
.314AVG ←.252
Current Season
AndrewCategoryNick
1HR →10
10R →39
10RBI →41
0SB →6
.354AVG ←.288
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Nick Kurtz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.398, +0.083 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Nick Kurtz: 19 HR / 58 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).