412 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Nick Kurtz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.375 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 10AVG .244R 30RBI 32SB 5
Kurtz is a buy — elite contact, not finished growing.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %18.1%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~18.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.375 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %58.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+18.3%vs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Barrel %18.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.1%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.379
lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —
412 / 160 PA
wOBA.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074vs his norm —
412 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
412 / 60 PA
Walk %18.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
412 / 120 PA
BABIP.375
lg avg .295 ▲+.080vs his norm +.011 ▲BABIP is above his ~.364 norm — expect it to fall.
204 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA
Chase %22.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 18.1%→18.2%signal10 HR — Barrel% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~18.4% → projected 18.2%.
BABIP 0.375→0.323 regressednoise.244 AVG — BABIP 0.375 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.250) → 0.323.
on-base + lineup30 R — his run rate over ~203 projected PA.
slugging + lineup32 RBI — his RBI rate over ~203 projected PA.
run rate / role5 SB — his steal rate (6 in 58 G) over ~203 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.