434 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Nick Kurtz
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.363 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Kurtz is a buy — his power is real and the contact keeps climbing.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %18.0%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~18.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.4 mphvs his norm —
211 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %57.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.3%vs his norm —
211 / 50 BBE
Barrel %18.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
211 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.374
lg avg .315 ▲+.059vs his norm —
434 / 160 PA
wOBA.381
lg avg .315 ▲+.066vs his norm —
434 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
434 / 60 PA
Walk %18.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+9.7%vs his norm —
434 / 120 PA
BABIP.363
lg avg .295 ▲+.068vs his norm −.001 ▼BABIP is below his ~.364 norm — expect it to rise.
211 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
434 / 50 PA
Chase %23.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
434 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 18.0%→18.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 18.0% (signal) lifted to career ~18.4% → projected 18.2%.
BABIP 0.363→0.314 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.363 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.297 (xBA 0.244) → 0.314.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (6 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.