104 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Victor Mesa Jr.
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.311); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .196R 19RBI 19SB 0
Mesa Jr. is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .211 YTD → .196 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.311)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
104 / 160 PA
wOBA.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
104 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
104 / 60 PA
Walk %12.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
104 / 120 PA
BABIP.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
104 / 50 PA
Chase %30.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
104 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.0%→8.8%signal3 HR — Barrel% 9.0% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.8%.
BABIP 0.230→0.256 regressednoise.196 AVG — BABIP 0.230 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.230) → 0.256.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~144 projected PA.
slugging + lineup19 RBI — his RBI rate over ~144 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 6 G) over ~144 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.