week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Shane McClanahan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.99 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.269 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 56ERA 3.99WHIP 1.28W 4–8SV 0
McClanahan is a sell-high — xERA says regression is near.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.2%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~27.5% career norm
- Walk %7.9%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.269 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.99 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
241 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
241 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
xERA3.99
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.11vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
ERA2.83
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
354 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
354 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
241 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
1340 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.2%→24.8%signal56 K — K% 23.2% (signal) lifted to career ~27.5% → projected 24.8% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 3.99signal3.99 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.99 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-8 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop56 K ROS, 3.99 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.